Baseline Hemoglobin, Hepcidin, Ferritin, and Total Body Iron Stores are Equally Strong Diagnostic Predictors of a Hemoglobin Response to 12 Weeks of Daily Iron Supplementation in Cambodian Women

Background: The WHO recommends daily iron supplementation for all women in areas where the population-level anemia prevalence is ≥40%, despite the fact that hemoglobin (Hb) concentration is generally considered to be a poor prognostic indicator of iron status. Objectives: In this secondary analysis, we investigated the predictive power of ten baseline hematological biomarkers towards a 12-week Hb response to iron supplementation. Methods: Data were obtained from a randomized controlled trial of daily iron supplementation in 407 nonpregnant Cambodian women (18-45 years) who received 60mg elemental iron as ferrous sulfate for 12 weeks. Ten baseline biomarkers were included: Hb, measured with both a hematology analyzer and a HemoCue; inflammation-adjusted ferritin; soluble transferrin receptor; reticulocyte Hb; hepcidin; mean corpuscular volume; inflammation-adjusted total body iron stores (TBIS); total iron binding capacity; and transferrin saturation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from fitted logistic regression models were used to make discrimination comparisons and variable selection methods were used to construct a multibiomarker prognostic model. Results: Only 25% (n=95/383) of women who completed the trial experienced a 12-week Hb response ≥10 g/L. The strongest univariate predictors of a Hb response were Hb as measured with a hematology analyzer, inflammation-adjusted ferritin, hepcidin, and inflammation-adjusted TBIS (AUC^ROC=0.81, 0.83, 0.82, and 0.82, respectively), and the optimal cutoffs to identify women who were likely to experience a Hb response were 117 g/L, 17.3 μg/L, 1.98 nmol/L, and 1.95 mg/kg, respectively. Hb as measured with a hematology analyzer, inflammation-adjusted ferritin, and hepcidin had the best combined predictive ability (AUC^ROC0.86). Hb measured with the HemoCue had poor discrimination ability (AUC^ROC=0.65). Conclusions: Baseline Hb as measured with a hematology analyzer was as strong a predictor of Hb response to iron supplementation as inflammation-adjusted ferritin, hepcidin, and inflammation-adjusted TBIS. This is positive given that the WHO currently uses the population-level anemia prevalence to guide recommendations for untargeted iron supplementation.