Peripheral blood DNA methylation predicts the early onset of primary tumor in TP53 mutation carriers

  • Vallijah Subasri
  • , Benjamin Brew
  • , Brianne Laverty
  • , Lauren Erdman
  • , Tanya Guha
  • , Jordan R. Hansford
  • , Elizabeth Cairney
  • , Carol Portwine
  • , Christine Elser
  • , Jonathan L. Finlay
  • , Kim E. Nichols
  • , Jo Anson
  • , Wendy Kohlmann
  • , Haifan Gong
  • , Jodi Lees
  • , Noa Alon
  • , Ledia Brunga
  • , Anita Villani
  • , Kelvin C. de Andrade
  • , Payal P. Khincha
  • Sharon A. Savage, Joshua D. Schiffman, Trevor J. Pugh, David Malkin, Anna Goldenberg

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) confers high lifetime cancer risk due to germline TP53 pathogenic variants (PV). A comprehensive surveillance regimen termed the ‘Toronto Protocol’, has been adopted for early tumor detection, demonstrating improved survival among TP53 PV carriers. However, the protocol’s “one-size-fits-all” approach fails to consider individual cancer risk. To personalize screening, we developed a support vector machine model to predict early onset of primary tumors (age < 6) using peripheral blood methylation data of TP53 PV carriers (n = 237). Validation (n = 64) and external testing (n = 79) showed AUROC = 0.928 [0.835–1.000], F1-score = 0.692 [0.435–0.867], and NPV = 0.984 [0.946–1.000]. The model achieved 91% accuracy, correctly classifying 90% of patients with cancer before the age of six and 87% of cancer-free individuals in the external test set. Our tool enables risk stratification for early-onset malignancies, to optimize clinical surveillance and improve patient outcomes.

Original languageEnglish
Article number7976
JournalNature Communications
Volume16
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished or Issued - Dec 2025

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Chemistry
  • General Biochemistry,Genetics and Molecular Biology
  • General
  • General Physics and Astronomy

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